Perudo and Monte Carlo

Perudo (aka Liar's dice) is a game where players have perfect knowledge of their own dice and imperfect knowledge of other people's dice. Players bid on the collective set of dice that is rolled by all players. A player starts with 5 dice, and as the game is played, they can lose these dice. Each time you lose a die, you have less perfect information. As other players lose dice, you have less imperfect information.

It is helpful to understand the likelihood of what other players might hold, and so I created a class exercise that treats the problem as a Monte Carlo exercise (although the probabilities are easily found by students familiar with the binomial distribution).


The idea is that each row of the spreadsheet represents a roll of 1-5 dice. There are 1000 rolls, so we would say that the Monte Carlo experiment consists of 1000 trials.

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